Signs are Pointing Up for a Positive 2011

November's early promotions proved too tempting for consumers, who came out in droves to spend well before December 25th, and even before the celebrated Black Friday. Free shipping and bad weather (and perhaps the realization of how much money was already spent?!) seemed to keep consumers' wallets tucked away in December. Although unemployment remained high and consumers may not return to "normal" spending soon, the fact that sales were positive - particularly in the luxury sector - is a positive sign for the new year.

Overall holiday sales - the best in four years

• Same store sales for November-December 2010 showed a 5.7% increase
• the best holiday season since 2004 which saw a 5.9% increase
• The two month 2010 sales increase is higher than the 3.6% increase for the same period in 2009

November Reigns

• November 2010 same store sales saw a gain of 5.6% 
• vs. a 0.3% drop in November 2009
• December 2010 same store sales saw a gain of 3.1%
• vs. a 3.0% gain in December 2009

Bright spots in luxury

• There were significant gains in December jewelry and luxury sales this year compared to 2009
• December jewelry sales rose 10.4% 
• vs. a 5.6% gain from December 2009
• Luxury sales outside of jewelry rose 8.5% 
• vs. a 5.5% gain from December 2009

Online sales see a surge

• Americans spent 13% more online this holiday season ($30.81 billion) than last year ($27.37 billion)
• 2009 saw only a 5% spending increase from 2008
• This year served as an all-time record for online spending for the holiday season 
• Free shopping was used in more than half of all e-commerce transactions this season

M-commerce, the new kid on the block

• According to a January 2011 ForeSee Results study of 10,000 consumers:
• 11% of shoppers made a purchase from their phones this holiday season vs. 2% during the 2009 holidays
• 7% of shoppers used retail mobile apps this holiday season compared with 1% during the 2009 holidays

Image: jcreationzs/freedigitalphotos.net


Sources:
Strong December Gains Help Retailers Beat Holiday Sales Projections, According to NRF, nrf.com, 1/14/11
33% of webshoppers engage in m-commerce, and 11% buy, ForeSee Results finds, internetretailer.com, 1/10/11
December retail store sales solid but below expectations after November surge, washingtonpost.com, 1/6/11
December Same-Store Sales Soften, Kantar Retail Reports, kantarretail.com, 1/6/11
Holiday store sales chilled, money.cnn.com, 1/6/11
December Retail Sales are Weaker Than Expected, nytimes.com, 1/6/11
U.S. Online Holiday Shopping Season Reaches Record $32.6 Billion for November-December Period, Up 12 Percent vs. Year Ago, comscore.com, 1/5/11
US retail sectors saw growth in Dec-SpendingPulse, reuters.com, 1/6/10
Online Holiday sales rise 13 percent in 2010, msnbc.com, 12/30/10

Holiday Retail Darling 2.0 - Mobile Commerce

"In 2008 and 2009 , mobile started out as a science project. It's accelerated so fast that it's becoming more mission-critical for retailers to deliver a mobile experience in a professional way."  

- Dave Sikora, Digby

In our 2009 post-holiday blog we declared online shopping as the holiday retail darling of the holiday season. But this year there' s a new darling in town - it's that handy portable device we call a mobile phone. Mobile commerce, or m-commerce, made a significant contribution as the new tech trend for the holiday season as more shoppers were going online than ever before.

People used their phone just like their computers at home for online shopping: comparing prices, purchasing items and finding the nearest store location as well as inventory in stock locally.


Retailers hopped on board as they invested in m-commerce to prepare for the holidays. That's a smart move considering how m-commerce promotions encourage impulse buys, and knowing the exact location of shoppers lets merchants deliver coupons and offers to users when they're most likely to spend. Mobile apps like Foursquare  encourages consumers to "check in" and retailers took advantage of the information. They offered the ability to scan barcodes or get discounts on their mobile device while out shopping. With moves like that, retailers presented a seamless shopping experience online and offline.


M-commerce expected to triple this year, and double again next year; but US lags behind others

• m-commerce is expected to triple to $3 billion in the U.S. this year and reach $6 billion next year
• However, U.S. consumers are still behind foreign consumers in terms of purchasing with a mobile phone
• 7.9% of U.S. consumers have bought something with a phone vs.
• 32% of consumers in Taiwan have bought something with a phone (This tops the list of major industrialized countries (per IE Market Research Corp)
• About 13% of consumers in Finland have bought something with a phone (#1 European country)

M-commerce played a significant role so far in the 2010 holiday online shopping experience

• Almost 60% of mobile consumers expect to use their phones to help with shopping plans and holiday celebrations this season
• Nearly 4% of all Cyber Monday shoppers used smartphones and other devices to make their purchases
• According to research data from Google/OTX:
• 52% of U.S. smartphone users plan to use their phone to compare prices during the holiday shopping season
• 40% plan to use their phones to read product reviews
• According to the 2010 eholiday pre-holiday survey from National Retail Federation
• Shoppers using smartphones will account for at least $127 billion, or 28%, of the $447 billion the NRF predicts consumers will spend this holiday season 
• Over one quarter of consumers said they definitely planned to use their smartphone to research or make holiday purchases

Are you planning to ride the m-commerce wave this holiday season? You won't be alone!

Image: Carlos Porto/freedigitalphotos.net 

Sources:

7.9% of U.S. consumers bought item on smart phone, SFgate.com, 12/3/10

It's a holly, jolly (mobile) Christmas, shop.org, 12/2/10
Best Buy, Amazon.com Try to Reach Shoppers Through Their Phones, businessweek.com, 12/2/10
U.S. Online Sales on Cyber Monday Climbed 16%, ComScore Says, bloomberg.com, 12/1/10
Cyber Monday sales hit record $1B, bizjournals.com 12/1/10

Frighteningly Empty Stores for Halloween, or a Bewitching Economic Rebound?

About 148 million Americans are expected to partake in some sort of Halloween celebration, and according to National Retail Federation's Halloween Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey, people will be spending considerably more than they did last year, perhaps even back up to the levels of 2008. That being said, 30% of consumers say that the condition of the U.S. economy will still influence their Halloween plans. Total spending for the holiday is expected to reach $5.8 billion.
For some people Halloween is not an "all-out" spending holiday, with people doing the same thing from year-to-year regardless of the economy, certain spending boundaries remaining of course. Costumes appear to be where the most money is spent, and is not necessarily affected by economic circumstances while  decorations don't really come in to play regarding the economy. The state of the economy seems mainly to affect those throwing a party, forcing people to pull back on certain provisions.


Costumes - clearly the crux of the holiday
Consumers are expected to spend $23.37 per person on costumes this year
Spending on costumes might be the least economically affected aspect of Halloween this year, which seems to demonstrate that costumes are the nucleus of the holiday. While parents probably don't want to spend a ton of money on a costume their child will most likely wear only for one night, parents might pay anywhere from $10 at Sam's Club to $50 or $60 at Target or a Halloween pop-up store.

Married couples without children might spend $40 or $50 on an outfit, but they may recycle one or two pieces for an outfit the following year. Younger folks just out of college will head to thrift stores such as Goodwill or even look for accent items in their closet. Overall, costumes seem to dominate people's wallets with minor thought to economic conditions.

In fact, of those from NRF's survey:

• 40.1% of consumers are planning to wear a costume, up from 33.4% last year
• 69.4% of 18-24 year olds say they will dress up, the highest of any other age group

Decorations - reuse and recycle
Consumers are expected to spend $18.66 on decorations this year and 50.1% of consumers will decorate their home or yard
Halloween decorations seem to be something people don't buy every year, unlike Christmas where maybe new ornaments or bulbs are purchased yearly for a tree; therefore decorations don't appear to be a factor when people consider what or if they are going to cut back on in terms of spending for Halloween.

Some might bargain shop for decorations or pick up one or two new inexpensive items if they happen to see it in a store (like Target or Big Lots), while others might use what they have accumulated over the years. Some people agree that decorations can get expensive and money is better spent on costumes or parties.


Halloween Parties - I wanna party like it's 2008
Halloween parties might be the most affected aspect, in terms of spending, regarding the state of the economy. Perhaps those who went big the previous year, particularly purchasing alcohol, might scale back and instead have a BYOB party. Economic conditions may not completely stall someone from throwing a party, but it might be a more prominent factor from year-to-year.

NRF's survey revealed:

• 33.3% of people will attend or throw a party
• 55.4% of young adults are more likely than any other age group to throw or attend a party

Still Cutting Back
Although some say their Halloween spending will not change, or perhaps they will cut back on one or two aspects, 86.8% of those surveyed said they will spend less overall.

In addition...

• 45.1% will be buying less candy
• 30.7% will be using last year's decorations and not buying new ones
• 18.5% will be using last year's costume
• 19.5% will be making a costume

While some of those in NRF's survey say they will be loosening their wallets, there are still those who will continue to watch their spending. Perhaps this holiday season will be filled with cautious optimism where some party-goers and throwers will pinch their pennies where they can.

Image: Simon Howden/freedigitalphotos.net

Sources:
After Spooky 2009, Halloween Spending Bounces Back to '08 Levels, According to NRF, nrf.com, 9/23/10

Gift card watch: consumers buying more gift cards

Retailers may be able to breathe a small sigh of relief when it comes to their gift card business.

According to a recent report by The Hartman Group, the number of consumers purchasing gift cards has significantly increased over the past six months. This interesting finding suggests that consumers may actually view gift cards as practical gifts in this tough economy. If this trend continues for the remainder of the year, it could spell good things for sales of gift cards at the holiday gift-giving season.

However, the report also notes that while more consumers are purchasing gift cards, consumers are actually spending less on gift cards. The study suggests that the lower rate of spending on gift cards can be attributed to consumers’ poor views of the economy. In addition to that, almost half of consumers are reluctant to purchase gift cards due to the myriad of retailer and restaurant bankruptcies.

We’ll be following what’s happening on the gift card front over the course of this year. Be sure to stop back for updates!

[via The Hartman Group: Gift Card Buying Trends, 2009]