Holiday 2009 Retail Review: Don't forget, '08 was a disaster!

Sales numbers for major retailers this past holiday season were decent, but let's not forget that we're comparing with last year's disaster of a retail holiday season. Our excitement over a successful holiday season is a bit tempered with this in mind.

On the consumer level -- folks said they didn't notice as many good sales as they had in years past, but thought that the rationale behind that was the merchandise wasn't "over-purchased" by the stores' buyers. In addition, consumers went online instead of brick and mortar. Here's what a couple of savvy consumers told us,

 

"I thought stuff would be marked down more than it was -- I guess retailers didn't over-order as much as they did last year." Julia, Chicago.

"It seemed a little less crazy than usual. I always go out shopping early on Black Friday and I noticed the lines weren't as long. The sales didn't seem as motivating...It seemed that the things I wanted didn't necessitate a trip to a retail store. Everything I needed could be bought online." Anne, Indianapolis.

Retailer winners included TJX (+14 vs. flat YA, year ago), Kmart (+5.3 vs. -1.1 YA) Gap Inc., which includes Old Navy (+2 vs. -14 YA) and to a lesser degree of success Target (+1.8 vs. -4.1 YA), and Macy's (+1 vs. -4 YA). Walmart no longer reports monthly sales -- results for fourth quarter are expected later this year, but early predictions suggest they may be flat. In December '08, Walmart reported a +1.7 increase.


It was an interesting surprise to see high end retailers like Neiman Marcus (+4.5 vs. -27.5 YA), Nordstrom (+7.4 vs. -10.6 YA) and Saks (+9.9 vs. -19.8 YA) recover nicely this past season. Will these retailers see a solid 2010 as well? Stay tuned. They may be headed that way.


On the sad side of retail: Abercrombie & Fitch was a wee-bit less dismal (-13 vs. -25.5 YA) than sister stores Abercrombie (-19 vs. -24 YA) and Hollister (-25 vs. -24 YA). Hot Topic was not a hot topic with a staggering decline (-10.9 vs. +4.3 YA) and other losers included Sears (-4.3 vs. -12.8 YA), Banana Republic (-3 vs. -15 YA) and JCPenney (-3.8 vs. -8.1 YA). At the very least, the latter three did less bad than last year.

Please note: All numbers are same store sales compared with a year ago (YA). 

Our friend Anne brings up a really good point about online shopping this past season -- online retailers did extraordinarily well, and consumers were quite happy with the experience. Stay tuned for our next posting on the holiday retail season online. We'll explore the reasons folks flocked to the internet this past season.



[photo credit: Suat Eman / FreeDigitalPhotos.net]